The Need: Increasing enrollment is the driving need for an additional elementary school
Rose Tree Media School District is a vibrant, growing, and successful school District. We’re proud of our successes and continue to adapt to meet the needs of our current students and new families.
Niche A+ rating overall (22 out of 497 PA school districts)
Our tax rate is the 3rd lowest in the county
SchoolDigger: top 10% statewide
Identified as one of the top public school systems in affordable housing markets in the USA
National Blue Ribbon Schools by the U.S. Department of Education
The original demographic study (done in 2016) showed that our District would see significant enrollment growth in our elementary schools in the next five (5) years. The District-wide demographic projections have continued to be evaluated on an annual basis and have been verified as accurate. In addition, actual enrollment growth in some of our elementary schools is now outpacing the projected enrollment increases indicating a steeper growth rate than originally anticipated. By 2023, our elementary enrollment will have grown enough to fill another elementary school.
We need to address the challenge of growing elementary enrollment now. By 2025 - 2026, our elementary enrollment is expected to be 2,029 students. This represents an increase of 372 students from the base school year of 2015/2016. For reference, a small elementary school serves roughly 400 students.
Middle school enrollment needs may require attention by the middle of the decade as students age. The District will continue to track facility capacity across all schools.
How has our enrollment at Rose Tree grown?
Addressing space needs as they occur is necessary for districts like ours. The best predictor of future enrollment is what we see happening across our elementary enrollment numbers. Since the 2016-2017 school year, elementary enrollment has increased by almost 200 students — from 1,727 students to 1,915 students.
Over time, as students move from our elementary schools, enrollment in other grades will grow. This increase will cause similar increases in upper grades over the next decade. For example, grade 6-8 enrollment is on track to exceed 1,000 students for the first time in the next two years. Since the 2016 - 2017 school year, our overall student enrollment has grown by almost 6% — from 3,872 students for the 2014 - 2015 school year to 4,086 students for the 2021 - 2022 school year.
Overall, we are not seeing any decline in enrollment at the elementary level for the rest of the decade. This is why RTMSD approved a new elementary school – to address current space needs and to be prepared if additional housing units are developed during the remainder of this decade. We will keep watching middle and high school enrollment as it is likely to continue to increase as the recent growth in K-2 enrollment works its way into the secondary grades. If necessary, we will address those space needs in a future plan.
Updated enrollment numbers
The Pennsylvania Department of Health (PA DOH) provides our district with valuable information that we use to help plan for future enrollment. The number of live births for our district rose from 303 students in 2019 to 377 students in 2020.
In October 2021, the PA DOH released projections that forecasted a decline in live births for Pennsylvania due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this has proven to be false, and the PA DOH has since forecasted an increase in live births for Pennsylvania.
Since that time, the PA DOH has revised its live birth projections for our district from 270 to 366 students for 2021 and 2022. Our enrollment projections were updated based on their report, ultimately showing an increase in live births in Delaware County. The PA DOH projects an additional 83 kindergarten students for the 2026 - 2027 school year, and an additional 54 kindergarten students for the 2027 - 2028 school year.
In response to our analysis and the community’s input, we identified the most critical items for a long-term facilities plan. Those items include:
Addressing elementary school space as enrollment grows
Creating parity among our buildings so all students have the same opportunities for development and growth
Preparing for full-day kindergarten
Long-range planning for renovations and expansion is needed in our middle and high schools to accommodate tomorrow’s enrollment growth
